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Reason: The whole economy is headed into a long term recession that will kill the value of all assets.
Use T-bills or money market accounts to store your wealth. If you have cash, you can survive the coming depression.
Again, get out of stocks, excess property, or other assets. Only hold cash or cash equivalents.
[Bottom Line]: A Primary degree rally is in its initial stages.
[T]he most probable interpretation based on the weight of the evidence is that the March 6-9 lows represent the bottom of Primary wave 1 (circle) down.
The implication of [the wave pattern] is that the stock market will rally for several months, likely into the Fall, as prices work higher to complete an upward correction of Primary degree. The initial S&P target is the apex of the previous wave (4) triangle, which is [S&P] 875-900 (8400± in the DJIA). Another potential target range is [S&P] 1007-1044 (9425-9795 in the DJIA), which includes a previous fourth-wave extreme.
... in summary: the major stock indexes are in the initial stages of a multi-month advance that should "correct" the initial leg down of the ongoing bear market. Our long-term stance remains firmly bearish, as the bear market is far from over. Shorter term, we will look for a more opportune time and juncture in which to adopt a near-term bullish stance in anticipation of higher prices as Primary wave 2 (circle) up progresses.
Update 6/4/09 Expect a significant setback to the current advance lasting several weeks (or more). Then, expect an advance lasting into August (or later) that will exceed the recent highs (and which will be the end of wave 2). That (most probably) will be followed by a crash to much lower prices. Stay tuned!
Update 7/6/09 ... odds favor lower prices in the coming weeks.
... A measured move targets the 800 level (±10 points) in the S&P and 7565 (±15 points) in the DJIA.
Update 8/28/09 The stock market may be on the verge of a significant trend change, from up to down. The move up from early July could be complete and September is often a time for declines. You should be out of equities and clear of excess property. You should have your cash in T-bills. The next move down will be very destructive to the value of equities and real property.
Update 9/25/09 Quote: In summary: odds favor that the stock market has made an important high and is now in the early stages of a significant selloff.
Update 10/21/09 {REITS topped 9/23] Quote: Today’s large downward reversal bar indicates that more selling pressure and lower prices [below the March lows] lie ahead. ... Unless today’s big downside bar is reversed immediately —by a rally back above today’s intraday highs in the next day or two— odds favor that stocks have made a Primary-degree high. ... A close beneath the up-sloping trendline (approx. DOW 9500 and S&P 1050) drawn off the March bottom will confirm the onset of the bear market’s next leg lower.
A very large decline in equities and assets will unfold and a real recovery will be years away. Again, you should keep your wealth in T-bills.
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OK, the current participants, Jasper and Luther:
and
and the chase and Gotcha!!!
then
There are several smaller dogs who approach and bark. Jasper stands and gives them a look which means, if you get close, I'll punch holes in your nose!
When I'm inspired, I sell "guy stuff" (electronics, tech books, tools) and some collectables when they come my way.

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